On an expected value inequality.












6














Given $X$ a random variable that takes values on all of $mathbb{R}$ with associated probability density function $f$ is it true that for all $r > 0$



$$E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} f(x) dx right] ge E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x) dx right]$$



for any other probability density function $g$ ?



This seems intuitively true to me and I imagine if it were to be true that it has been proven but I can't find a similar result on the standard textbooks, even a reference is welcome.










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    6














    Given $X$ a random variable that takes values on all of $mathbb{R}$ with associated probability density function $f$ is it true that for all $r > 0$



    $$E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} f(x) dx right] ge E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x) dx right]$$



    for any other probability density function $g$ ?



    This seems intuitively true to me and I imagine if it were to be true that it has been proven but I can't find a similar result on the standard textbooks, even a reference is welcome.










    share|cite|improve this question



























      6












      6








      6


      1





      Given $X$ a random variable that takes values on all of $mathbb{R}$ with associated probability density function $f$ is it true that for all $r > 0$



      $$E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} f(x) dx right] ge E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x) dx right]$$



      for any other probability density function $g$ ?



      This seems intuitively true to me and I imagine if it were to be true that it has been proven but I can't find a similar result on the standard textbooks, even a reference is welcome.










      share|cite|improve this question















      Given $X$ a random variable that takes values on all of $mathbb{R}$ with associated probability density function $f$ is it true that for all $r > 0$



      $$E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} f(x) dx right] ge E left[ int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x) dx right]$$



      for any other probability density function $g$ ?



      This seems intuitively true to me and I imagine if it were to be true that it has been proven but I can't find a similar result on the standard textbooks, even a reference is welcome.







      probability integration probability-theory inequality






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      edited Nov 10 at 20:24

























      asked Nov 10 at 17:17









      Monolite

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          6














          Taking the particular case of small $r$ ($r to 0$) and continuous $f$, your inequality turns equivalent to



          $$ int f^2 ge int f g $$



          with the restrictions $int f = int g = 1$ and $fge 0$, $gge 0$. This is clearly false. For a fixed $f$ we maximize $int f g$, not by choosing $g=f$, but by choosing $g$ concentrated around the mode (maximum) of $f$.



          Incidentally, your assertion has a simple interpretation: suppose I have to guess the value of a random variable $x$ with pdf $f$, so that I win if the absolute error $e=|x- hat x|$ is less than $r$. If the inequality were true, then the conclusion would be that my best estrategy (in terms of expected win rate) is to make a random guess , by drawing my $hat x$ as an independent random variable with the same density as $x$. But this is not true, the optimal guess is to choose a deterministic value, that which maximizes the respective integral; for small $r$ this is the mode of $f$ (maximum a posteriori).






          share|cite|improve this answer































            3














            Unfortunately, your intuitive conjecture is INCORRECT.



            Let $f(x)$ be the PDF of the random variable $X$ and $F(x)$ be its cumulative PDF, so that $F'(x)=f(x)$, or
            $$F(x)=int_{-infty}^x f(t)dt$$
            Similarly, let $g(x)$ be another PDF with cumulative PDF $G(x)$. Then the expected value of the integral
            $$int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x)dx$$
            is equal to
            $$int_{-infty}^infty int_{x-r}^{x+r} f(x)g(t)dtdx=int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx$$
            By using integration by parts, we have that
            $$int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx=int_{-infty}^infty (F(x+r)-F(x-r))g(x)dx$$
            Consider this simple counterexample. Let $r=1$, and suppose that
            $$f(x)=frac{1}{pi}frac{1}{1+x^2}$$
            Then, if your conjecture is true, for no function $g$ will the integral
            $$frac{1}{pi}int_{-infty}^infty (arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1))g(x)dx$$
            even surpass the value
            $$frac{1}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+x^2}dxapprox 0.1475$$
            However, suppose that we let
            $$g(x)=frac{4}{pi}frac{1}{1+4x^2}$$
            Then the value of our integral is equal to
            $$frac{4}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+4x^2}dxapprox 0.3743$$
            which disproves your conjecture.






            share|cite|improve this answer





















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              2 Answers
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              6














              Taking the particular case of small $r$ ($r to 0$) and continuous $f$, your inequality turns equivalent to



              $$ int f^2 ge int f g $$



              with the restrictions $int f = int g = 1$ and $fge 0$, $gge 0$. This is clearly false. For a fixed $f$ we maximize $int f g$, not by choosing $g=f$, but by choosing $g$ concentrated around the mode (maximum) of $f$.



              Incidentally, your assertion has a simple interpretation: suppose I have to guess the value of a random variable $x$ with pdf $f$, so that I win if the absolute error $e=|x- hat x|$ is less than $r$. If the inequality were true, then the conclusion would be that my best estrategy (in terms of expected win rate) is to make a random guess , by drawing my $hat x$ as an independent random variable with the same density as $x$. But this is not true, the optimal guess is to choose a deterministic value, that which maximizes the respective integral; for small $r$ this is the mode of $f$ (maximum a posteriori).






              share|cite|improve this answer




























                6














                Taking the particular case of small $r$ ($r to 0$) and continuous $f$, your inequality turns equivalent to



                $$ int f^2 ge int f g $$



                with the restrictions $int f = int g = 1$ and $fge 0$, $gge 0$. This is clearly false. For a fixed $f$ we maximize $int f g$, not by choosing $g=f$, but by choosing $g$ concentrated around the mode (maximum) of $f$.



                Incidentally, your assertion has a simple interpretation: suppose I have to guess the value of a random variable $x$ with pdf $f$, so that I win if the absolute error $e=|x- hat x|$ is less than $r$. If the inequality were true, then the conclusion would be that my best estrategy (in terms of expected win rate) is to make a random guess , by drawing my $hat x$ as an independent random variable with the same density as $x$. But this is not true, the optimal guess is to choose a deterministic value, that which maximizes the respective integral; for small $r$ this is the mode of $f$ (maximum a posteriori).






                share|cite|improve this answer


























                  6












                  6








                  6






                  Taking the particular case of small $r$ ($r to 0$) and continuous $f$, your inequality turns equivalent to



                  $$ int f^2 ge int f g $$



                  with the restrictions $int f = int g = 1$ and $fge 0$, $gge 0$. This is clearly false. For a fixed $f$ we maximize $int f g$, not by choosing $g=f$, but by choosing $g$ concentrated around the mode (maximum) of $f$.



                  Incidentally, your assertion has a simple interpretation: suppose I have to guess the value of a random variable $x$ with pdf $f$, so that I win if the absolute error $e=|x- hat x|$ is less than $r$. If the inequality were true, then the conclusion would be that my best estrategy (in terms of expected win rate) is to make a random guess , by drawing my $hat x$ as an independent random variable with the same density as $x$. But this is not true, the optimal guess is to choose a deterministic value, that which maximizes the respective integral; for small $r$ this is the mode of $f$ (maximum a posteriori).






                  share|cite|improve this answer














                  Taking the particular case of small $r$ ($r to 0$) and continuous $f$, your inequality turns equivalent to



                  $$ int f^2 ge int f g $$



                  with the restrictions $int f = int g = 1$ and $fge 0$, $gge 0$. This is clearly false. For a fixed $f$ we maximize $int f g$, not by choosing $g=f$, but by choosing $g$ concentrated around the mode (maximum) of $f$.



                  Incidentally, your assertion has a simple interpretation: suppose I have to guess the value of a random variable $x$ with pdf $f$, so that I win if the absolute error $e=|x- hat x|$ is less than $r$. If the inequality were true, then the conclusion would be that my best estrategy (in terms of expected win rate) is to make a random guess , by drawing my $hat x$ as an independent random variable with the same density as $x$. But this is not true, the optimal guess is to choose a deterministic value, that which maximizes the respective integral; for small $r$ this is the mode of $f$ (maximum a posteriori).







                  share|cite|improve this answer














                  share|cite|improve this answer



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                  edited Nov 10 at 19:23

























                  answered Nov 10 at 18:46









                  leonbloy

                  40.2k645107




                  40.2k645107























                      3














                      Unfortunately, your intuitive conjecture is INCORRECT.



                      Let $f(x)$ be the PDF of the random variable $X$ and $F(x)$ be its cumulative PDF, so that $F'(x)=f(x)$, or
                      $$F(x)=int_{-infty}^x f(t)dt$$
                      Similarly, let $g(x)$ be another PDF with cumulative PDF $G(x)$. Then the expected value of the integral
                      $$int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x)dx$$
                      is equal to
                      $$int_{-infty}^infty int_{x-r}^{x+r} f(x)g(t)dtdx=int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx$$
                      By using integration by parts, we have that
                      $$int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx=int_{-infty}^infty (F(x+r)-F(x-r))g(x)dx$$
                      Consider this simple counterexample. Let $r=1$, and suppose that
                      $$f(x)=frac{1}{pi}frac{1}{1+x^2}$$
                      Then, if your conjecture is true, for no function $g$ will the integral
                      $$frac{1}{pi}int_{-infty}^infty (arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1))g(x)dx$$
                      even surpass the value
                      $$frac{1}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+x^2}dxapprox 0.1475$$
                      However, suppose that we let
                      $$g(x)=frac{4}{pi}frac{1}{1+4x^2}$$
                      Then the value of our integral is equal to
                      $$frac{4}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+4x^2}dxapprox 0.3743$$
                      which disproves your conjecture.






                      share|cite|improve this answer


























                        3














                        Unfortunately, your intuitive conjecture is INCORRECT.



                        Let $f(x)$ be the PDF of the random variable $X$ and $F(x)$ be its cumulative PDF, so that $F'(x)=f(x)$, or
                        $$F(x)=int_{-infty}^x f(t)dt$$
                        Similarly, let $g(x)$ be another PDF with cumulative PDF $G(x)$. Then the expected value of the integral
                        $$int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x)dx$$
                        is equal to
                        $$int_{-infty}^infty int_{x-r}^{x+r} f(x)g(t)dtdx=int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx$$
                        By using integration by parts, we have that
                        $$int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx=int_{-infty}^infty (F(x+r)-F(x-r))g(x)dx$$
                        Consider this simple counterexample. Let $r=1$, and suppose that
                        $$f(x)=frac{1}{pi}frac{1}{1+x^2}$$
                        Then, if your conjecture is true, for no function $g$ will the integral
                        $$frac{1}{pi}int_{-infty}^infty (arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1))g(x)dx$$
                        even surpass the value
                        $$frac{1}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+x^2}dxapprox 0.1475$$
                        However, suppose that we let
                        $$g(x)=frac{4}{pi}frac{1}{1+4x^2}$$
                        Then the value of our integral is equal to
                        $$frac{4}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+4x^2}dxapprox 0.3743$$
                        which disproves your conjecture.






                        share|cite|improve this answer
























                          3












                          3








                          3






                          Unfortunately, your intuitive conjecture is INCORRECT.



                          Let $f(x)$ be the PDF of the random variable $X$ and $F(x)$ be its cumulative PDF, so that $F'(x)=f(x)$, or
                          $$F(x)=int_{-infty}^x f(t)dt$$
                          Similarly, let $g(x)$ be another PDF with cumulative PDF $G(x)$. Then the expected value of the integral
                          $$int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x)dx$$
                          is equal to
                          $$int_{-infty}^infty int_{x-r}^{x+r} f(x)g(t)dtdx=int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx$$
                          By using integration by parts, we have that
                          $$int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx=int_{-infty}^infty (F(x+r)-F(x-r))g(x)dx$$
                          Consider this simple counterexample. Let $r=1$, and suppose that
                          $$f(x)=frac{1}{pi}frac{1}{1+x^2}$$
                          Then, if your conjecture is true, for no function $g$ will the integral
                          $$frac{1}{pi}int_{-infty}^infty (arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1))g(x)dx$$
                          even surpass the value
                          $$frac{1}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+x^2}dxapprox 0.1475$$
                          However, suppose that we let
                          $$g(x)=frac{4}{pi}frac{1}{1+4x^2}$$
                          Then the value of our integral is equal to
                          $$frac{4}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+4x^2}dxapprox 0.3743$$
                          which disproves your conjecture.






                          share|cite|improve this answer












                          Unfortunately, your intuitive conjecture is INCORRECT.



                          Let $f(x)$ be the PDF of the random variable $X$ and $F(x)$ be its cumulative PDF, so that $F'(x)=f(x)$, or
                          $$F(x)=int_{-infty}^x f(t)dt$$
                          Similarly, let $g(x)$ be another PDF with cumulative PDF $G(x)$. Then the expected value of the integral
                          $$int_{X-r}^{X+r} g(x)dx$$
                          is equal to
                          $$int_{-infty}^infty int_{x-r}^{x+r} f(x)g(t)dtdx=int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx$$
                          By using integration by parts, we have that
                          $$int_{-infty}^infty (G(x+r)-G(x-r))f(x)dx=int_{-infty}^infty (F(x+r)-F(x-r))g(x)dx$$
                          Consider this simple counterexample. Let $r=1$, and suppose that
                          $$f(x)=frac{1}{pi}frac{1}{1+x^2}$$
                          Then, if your conjecture is true, for no function $g$ will the integral
                          $$frac{1}{pi}int_{-infty}^infty (arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1))g(x)dx$$
                          even surpass the value
                          $$frac{1}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+x^2}dxapprox 0.1475$$
                          However, suppose that we let
                          $$g(x)=frac{4}{pi}frac{1}{1+4x^2}$$
                          Then the value of our integral is equal to
                          $$frac{4}{pi^2}int_{-infty}^infty frac{arctan(x+1)-arctan(x-1)}{1+4x^2}dxapprox 0.3743$$
                          which disproves your conjecture.







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                          answered Nov 10 at 18:03









                          Frpzzd

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